The United Arab Emirates has completed the withdrawal of its last remaining military forces from Yemen, marking a significant de-escalation in the long-standing conflict and signaling a dramatic shift in relations with its former coalition partner, Saudi Arabia. The withdrawal comes after nearly a decade of UAE involvement in Yemen’s civil war and follows a series of contentious incidents that have strained the alliance between the two Gulf powers.

The Trigger: Airstrike on Mukalla Port

The catalyst for the UAE’s complete military withdrawal was a Saudi-led coalition airstrike on the southern port city of Mukalla. The strike targeted a shipment arriving from the UAE that Riyadh claimed contained weapons and combat vehicles destined for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, a separatist group that controls significant portions of southern Yemen.

The UAE vehemently denied these allegations, asserting that the shipment consisted solely of vehicles intended for its counterterrorism personnel operating in Yemen. The incident exposed deep fissures in what had once been a unified Gulf coalition against the Houthi rebels, who have controlled much of northern Yemen since 2014.

Presidential Council Cancels Defense Pact

In response to the airstrike and mounting political pressure from Riyadh, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, led by Rashad al-Alimi, took the unprecedented step of canceling a joint defense pact with the UAE. The council issued an ultimatum demanding that all Emirati forces leave Yemeni territory within 24 hours—a directive that received full backing from Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi government issued a stern statement declaring its national security a “red line” and accusing the UAE of pressuring the Southern Transitional Council to conduct military operations near Saudi borders. This public rebuke represented a remarkable deterioration in relations between two countries that have historically maintained close diplomatic, economic, and military ties.

“Our national security is non-negotiable. We have made it clear to our partners that any actions that threaten the stability of our borders or the integrity of Yemen’s recognized government will not be tolerated,” a Saudi official stated in remarks released to state media.

UAE Response: Surprise and De-escalation

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed surprise at the Saudi airstrike, characterizing it as unexpected given the longstanding cooperation between the two nations. In an official statement, the ministry emphasized the UAE’s commitment to de-escalation and regional stability.

UAE officials cited concerns over the safety and effectiveness of their personnel as the primary reason for the withdrawal. They maintained that the decision was made to protect Emirati forces from what they described as an increasingly complex and unpredictable security environment.

The Southern Transitional Council: UAE’s Continued Influence

The Southern Transitional Council, which advocates for the restoration of South Yemen as an independent state, has been a key instrument of UAE influence in the region. The STC controls the strategic port city of Aden and large swathes of southern Yemen, effectively operating as a parallel governing structure.

Despite the withdrawal of formal military forces, analysts suggest that the UAE will continue to provide financial, logistical, and political support to the STC. This ongoing relationship allows the UAE to maintain strategic interests in Yemen’s southern ports, particularly the deep-water port of Aden, which is crucial for maritime trade routes and regional security considerations.

Strategic Divergence Between Gulf Allies

The rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE reflects deeper strategic divergences that have emerged over the course of the Yemen conflict. While Saudi Arabia has prioritized the restoration of the internationally recognized government and the containment of Houthi influence on its southern border, the UAE has focused on securing control of strategic ports and countering Islamist movements, including the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Saudi Arabia views the STC’s aspirations for southern independence as a threat to Yemen’s territorial integrity and, by extension, a potential destabilizing factor for the broader region. The kingdom fears that a fragmented Yemen could create security vacuums that extremist groups might exploit.

Regional and Geopolitical Implications

The UAE’s withdrawal has significant implications for the broader geopolitical landscape of the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea region. The move raises questions about the future of the Saudi-led coalition and the prospects for a lasting political settlement in Yemen.

Impact on Local Factions

Local Yemeni factions face an uncertain future following the UAE’s withdrawal. The Southern Transitional Council must now navigate the complex political landscape without the direct military backing of its primary patron. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia, faces the challenge of extending its authority over southern territories controlled by the STC.

There are concerns that underlying tensions among local factions could escalate into renewed violence. The delicate balance of power that existed under the presence of both Saudi and Emirati forces has been disrupted, creating potential for instability.

Historical Context: UAE’s Role in Yemen

The UAE’s involvement in Yemen began in March 2015 when it joined the Saudi-led military intervention. Over the years, the UAE has played a multifaceted role, combining conventional military operations with the training and support of local security forces.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, which has primarily focused on aerial campaigns and border security, the UAE deployed ground forces and established a network of local proxy forces. These included counterterrorism units, coastal security forces, and the Security Belt Forces—militias aligned with the Southern Transitional Council.

In 2019, the UAE announced a significant reduction in its military presence in Yemen, though it maintained a residual force and continued to support local allied groups. The current withdrawal represents the culmination of this gradual disengagement.

Saudi-UAE Relations: A Complex Partnership

The current tensions belie the traditionally close relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The two countries have been pillars of the Gulf Cooperation Council and have cooperated extensively on economic, security, and foreign policy matters.

However, differences have emerged on several fronts in recent years. Beyond Yemen, the two nations have taken divergent approaches to normalizing relations with Iran, engaging with Israel, and managing relations with Turkey. The Qatar blockade, which both countries participated in from 2017 to 2021, also revealed subtle differences in their approaches and objectives.

“What we’re seeing is a maturation of Gulf politics where states are increasingly willing to pursue independent foreign policies that reflect their specific interests and strategic calculations, rather than always moving in lockstep,” explained Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

The Humanitarian Dimension

While the political and military dimensions of the UAE withdrawal dominate headlines, the humanitarian situation in Yemen remains dire. The United Nations has described Yemen as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with more than 21 million people—two-thirds of the population—requiring humanitarian assistance.

The withdrawal of Emirati forces does not immediately impact humanitarian conditions, but it adds another layer of uncertainty to an already complex situation. Aid organizations worry that shifting power dynamics could disrupt humanitarian access and exacerbate the suffering of civilians.

Looking Forward: Uncertain Future

The UAE’s complete military withdrawal from Yemen marks a significant turning point in the eight-year conflict, but it does not signal an end to the crisis. The underlying issues that have fueled the war—including political fragmentation, economic collapse, and regional power competition—remain unresolved.

Several critical questions remain unanswered. Will Saudi Arabia be able to fill the vacuum left by the UAE’s departure, or will this lead to increased influence for the Houthis and other non-state actors? Can the internationally recognized government extend its authority over southern Yemen without Emirati support for local security forces? And most importantly, will this shift in dynamics create new opportunities for peace negotiations, or will it further complicate efforts to reach a political settlement?

Regional Power Dynamics

The broader regional context cannot be ignored. Iran continues to support the Houthis, though the extent of this support remains a matter of debate. The Houthis have demonstrated increasing military capabilities, including long-range missile and drone strikes that have targeted Saudi Arabia and UAE territory.

Meanwhile, other regional actors maintain interests in Yemen’s future. Oman has served as a mediator between various parties, while international powers including the United States, United Kingdom, and European nations continue to have stakes in Yemen’s stability given the country’s strategic location on crucial maritime routes.

Conclusion: A New Chapter in Yemen’s Conflict

The UAE’s complete withdrawal from Yemen represents more than just a military disengagement—it symbolizes a fundamental realignment of Gulf politics and the limits of coalition warfare. The incident that triggered the withdrawal, the Saudi airstrike on Mukalla port, will be remembered as a pivotal moment when divergent interests among Gulf allies became impossible to reconcile through traditional diplomatic channels.

For Yemen, a country already fractured by years of conflict, this development introduces new uncertainties. The path forward remains unclear, with multiple scenarios possible ranging from renewed escalation to a potential opening for peace negotiations facilitated by the changing dynamics.

What is certain is that the UAE’s formal exit from Yemen does not mean an end to Emirati interests in the country’s future. The Southern Transitional Council remains a potent force in southern Yemen, and the strategic importance of Yemen’s ports ensures that regional powers will continue to compete for influence, even if the methods of that competition evolve.

As Yemen enters this new phase, the international community faces renewed urgency to support diplomatic efforts toward a comprehensive political settlement. The withdrawal of one major external military actor, while creating short-term uncertainties, may ultimately prove to be a necessary step toward allowing Yemenis themselves to determine their country’s future—though that future remains contested and unclear.